# March 6, 2026 — Market Report Date: 2026-03-06 Day 8 of the war. February payrolls came in at -92,000 — a shocking miss against the +55,000 consensus. WTI crude surged past $91 intraday, posting the largest weekly gain in futures history (+35.6% since 1983). The S&P 500 hit its lowest close of 2026. Stagflation fears became real. --- ## Jobs: Complete Shock February nonfarm payrolls printed **-92,000** — the worst since the pandemic. | Metric | Actual | Forecast | Prior (Revised) | |--------|--------|----------|-----------------| | Nonfarm Payrolls | **-92,000** | +55,000 | +126,000 (down from 130K) | | Unemployment Rate | **4.4%** | 4.3% | 4.3% | | Avg Hourly Earnings (m/m) | **+0.4%** | +0.3% | — | | Avg Hourly Earnings (y/y) | **+3.8%** | +3.7% | — | | Avg Duration of Unemployment | **25.7 weeks** | — | (longest since Dec 2021) | Key sectors: Healthcare -28,000 (Kaiser Permanente strike sidelined 30,000+ workers in CA/HI), Construction -11,000 (weather giveback after Jan's +48,000), Federal government -10,000. Third job loss in five months. Jefferies' Thomas Simons: "A perfect storm of temporary drags, but this is still a poor jobs number even stripping out weather and strike effects." --- ## The War: Day 8 — Qatar LNG Shutdown The economic fallout from the war reached a new dimension. - **QatarEnergy** halted LNG production at Ras Laffan after Iranian drone strikes — threatens ~20% of global LNG supply - Mojtaba Khamenei (son of the deceased Supreme Leader) installed as Iran's third Supreme Leader by Assembly of Experts under IRGC pressure - Trump called it "unacceptable," demanded "unconditional surrender." Iran's FM rejected negotiations - US struck 1,000+ additional targets — 7-day total now 3,000+. Iranian missile launch capability down 90% from Day 1 - 43 Iranian naval vessels damaged/destroyed. Israel completed 2,500+ sorties, claimed 80% of Iranian air defenses destroyed - Civilian casualties: 1,100-1,230 Iranians (UNICEF: 181+ children), 6 US soldiers killed (Kuwait, Mar 1), 11+ Israelis --- ## Tariffs: USMCA Exemption Trump exempted **USMCA-covered imports** until April 2 — roughly 49% of Mexican imports. Second carve-out after yesterday's auto exemption. Effectively half of affected imports now have temporary relief. --- ## US Markets Stagflation fears (oil surge + jobs shock) drove equities lower. S&P 500 posted its **lowest close of 2026**. | Index | Close | Change | |-------|-------|--------| | S&P 500 | 6,740 | -91 pts (-1.33%) | | Nasdaq | 22,388 | -361 pts (-1.59%) | | Dow Jones | 47,502 | -453 pts (-0.95%) | Weekly: S&P -2.0% (worst week in 5 months), Dow -3%, Nasdaq -1.2%. VIX surged to 24. --- ## Oil: Historic Weekly Surge | Benchmark | Price | Change | |-----------|-------|--------| | WTI Crude | ~$91/bbl (intraday) | +12.6% (daily) | | Brent Crude | ~$93/bbl (intraday breach) | Surged | **Weekly return: WTI +35.6%** — the largest since futures trading began in 1983. Brent broke $90 for the first time in nearly two years. Wood Mackenzie: sustained Hormuz closure could push to $150/bbl. --- ## Gold | Metric | Value | |--------|-------| | Spot Gold | ~$5,081-5,097/oz | | Daily Change | -$26 | Pulling back from all-time highs above $5,400 earlier in the week. Strong dollar capped gains but geopolitical safe-haven demand persisted. --- ## Treasuries | Maturity | Yield | |----------|-------| | 10-Year | 4.12-4.17% (intraday high 4.17%) | Yields initially rose on stagflation fears (oil + tariffs) then reversed lower after the weak jobs report. Weekly rise of ~20 bps — called "a dramatic departure from the soft landing narrative." --- ## Asia | Index | Change | |-------|--------| | Nikkei 225 | 55,621 (+0.62%) | | Hang Seng | ~25,321 (+0.3%) | | CSI 300 | 4,791 (+1.55%) | KOSPI gave back some of Thursday's +9.63% rebound, falling ~2% on Friday (KST) to ~5,441. --- ## Currencies | Pair | Rate | |------|------| | USD/KRW | 1,483-1,493 (won weakened, +0.78%) | | DXY | 98.87 (-0.45%) | Dollar index fell but the won still weakened — Korea's energy risk is being priced into the currency independently. --- ## The Narrative March 6 was **stagflation made concrete**. Jobs collapsed at -92,000 while oil posted its biggest weekly surge in history — the worst possible combination of slowing growth and accelerating inflation. The S&P's lowest close of 2026 and a -2% weekly decline reflect this. On the war front, QatarEnergy's LNG production halt opened a new dimension of the energy crisis. If both Hormuz oil and Qatari LNG are disrupted simultaneously, the global energy shock doubles. For Palace Fund: 1. **Stagflation is materializing.** The Fed faces a dilemma — collapsing employment demands rate cuts, but surging oil stokes inflation. Policy uncertainty is at maximum. 2. **$91 oil may be just the beginning.** If Hormuz + LNG disruption persists, the $100-150 range arrives quickly. This becomes a global recession catalyst. 3. **Won weakness accelerating.** Won weakened even as the dollar fell — Korea's idiosyncratic energy vulnerability is being priced in. Unfavorable for wire transfer timing. 4. **Pre-IPO valuations.** Stagflationary environments compress growth multiples. But AI infrastructure demand is somewhat decoupled from macro, so secondary buying opportunities may actually improve. --- ## Sources - [Yahoo Finance — Stock market today March 6](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-drop-to-end-volatile-week-as-oil-surges-above-90-210059886.html) - [CNBC — Oil surges 35% for biggest weekly gain in history](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/06/iran-us-war-oil-prices-brent-wti-barrel-futures.html) - [CNBC — February 2026 jobs report](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/06/february-2026-jobs-report.html) - [CNN — US economy lost 92,000 jobs](https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/06/economy/us-jobs-report-february) - [FXStreet — Nonfarm Payrolls decline by 92,000](https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-nonfarm-payrolls-set-to-grow-at-moderate-pace-in-february-after-stellar-january-202603060500) - [Fortune — Gold price March 6](https://fortune.com/article/current-price-of-gold-03-06-2026/) - [FinancialContent — Bond Market Tremors](https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2026-3-6-bond-market-tremors-10-year-treasury-yield-hits-417-as-stagflation-fears-mount) - [Advisor Perspectives — S&P 500 lowest close of 2026](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/03/06/s-p-500-snapshot-lowest-close-of-2026) - [GlobalSecurity — Iran War Day 7-8](https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iran-war-oprep.htm) - [Richard Haass — The War at One Week](https://richardhaass.substack.com/p/the-war-at-one-week-march-6-2026) - [Tax Foundation — Tariff Tracker 2026](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/)