# Pre-IPO AI Share Prices After the War Started

Date: 2026-03-04

**Context:** Palace Fund's strategy is to buy pre-IPO AI shares on secondary markets (primarily Hiive) before major AI companies go public. Operation Epic Fury began February 28, 2026. This report tracks how private market pricing has moved since the war started and what the buying environment looks like now.

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## The Big Three: Where They Stand

### Anthropic

| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| Latest funding round | $30B raised at $380B valuation (Feb 2026) |
| Hiive secondary price | $419.33/share |
| Employee secondary price | $350B valuation (Jan-Feb 2026) |
| IPO timeline | H1 2026 target; Wilson Sonsini engaged |
| Kalshi IPO odds | 72% chance of IPO before OpenAI |

Anthropic is now the most credible near-term IPO candidate among major AI labs. The $380B round — anchored by Nvidia ($10B) and Microsoft ($5B), joining existing investors Google and Amazon — closed just two weeks before the war started. The Hiive price of $419 reflects secondary market activity, but prices are derived and lag real-time bid/ask.

### OpenAI

| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| Implied valuation | $730-850B (pending round) |
| Forge secondary price | $674-723/share (as of March 2) |
| Pending fundraise | $100-110B from Amazon, Nvidia, SoftBank |
| IPO timeline | Q4 2026 target |
| 2026 projected losses | $14B |

OpenAI is the biggest name by valuation but also the most unusual structure: it is a capped-profit LLC, not a standard corporation, which complicates IPO logistics. The $730-850B valuation target assumes the fundraise closes on favorable terms. If the war drags on and markets stay volatile, that round could price lower.

### SpaceX

| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| Implied valuation | ~$800B (latest internal round) |
| xAI status | Merged into SpaceX — no longer a separate entity |
| IPO timeline | No formal announcement |

SpaceX absorbed xAI in late 2025. It is not a pure AI play, but it is the dominant private market name by secondary volume and has exposure to AI infrastructure via Starlink and compute.

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## What the War Did to Private Market Pricing

### The Broad Secondaries Picture

In the weeks before the war, secondaries market conditions were already tightening for tech-heavy portfolios. The war accelerated this:

- **20%+ discounts being demanded** by buyers on tech-heavy private portfolios (Bloomberg, as of March 3)
- **Deal volume slowing** — 25% decline in total VC deals in Q1 2026 even before the war, reflecting geopolitical risk aversion
- **Capital moving to safe havens** — gold, Treasuries, oil — away from growth assets

However, the top AI names are a distinct category from the broader private market:

| Category | War Impact |
|----------|-----------|
| Broad VC / early-stage | Significant pressure — 20%+ discounts |
| Mid-tier private tech | Moderate pressure — buyers cautious |
| Mega-cap AI (OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX) | Limited so far — liquidity premium, IPO optionality |

### Why AI Mega-Caps Are More Resilient

1. **No oil exposure.** These companies run on electricity and compute. Neither are directly tied to Hormuz.
2. **IPO catalyst coming.** Anthropic has Wilson Sonsini on retainer; OpenAI is targeting Q4. A looming IPO creates a floor — holders don't need to sell at distressed prices if they can wait six months for public liquidity.
3. **Strategic investors.** Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Microsoft are not selling in a panic. Their presence stabilizes the market.
4. **Secondary volume concentration.** On Hiive, the top 20 startups = 86% of all secondary trading value; top 5 = 56%. These are the big AI names. Sophisticated participants dominate; panic sellers are rare.

### What Might Still Apply Downward Pressure

1. **Risk-off duration.** If the conflict extends 6+ weeks, even mega-cap AI names could see 10-15% secondary price compression as capital needs trigger seller capitulation.
2. **IPO delay.** If public markets stay volatile, IPOs get pushed. Holders who expected liquidity in H1 2026 may need to sell secondaries at worse prices to meet other obligations.
3. **OpenAI fundraise terms.** If the $100-110B round closes at a lower valuation than $850B (possible in a risk-off environment), that would reprice secondaries down.

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## Pre-War vs. Post-War Price Snapshot

| Company | Pre-War Secondary (approx) | Post-War Secondary (March 3) | Change |
|---------|---------------------------|------------------------------|--------|
| Anthropic | ~$417 (Hiive, Feb 28) | $419.33 (Hiive) | +0.6% — essentially flat |
| OpenAI | ~$660-680 (Forge, pre-war) | $674-723 (Forge, March 2) | Mixed — lagged data |
| SpaceX | ~$800B valuation | No updated trade data | — |

**Caveat:** Hiive and Forge prices are derived estimates, not real-time exchange prices. Secondary trades take days to settle and report. The true market impact will become clearer in 1-2 weeks as new bids and asks are logged.

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## Buying Opportunity Assessment

### The Thesis

Palace Fund's core thesis: buy AI pre-IPO shares at a discount to eventual IPO price. The war has:

1. Created generalized risk-off pressure on private market prices
2. Done nothing to change the fundamental AI growth trajectory
3. Potentially delayed IPO timelines slightly, which is only good for buyers who aren't in yet

This is, structurally, a favorable moment to be a buyer — if capital is available.

### The Problem

Palace Fund does not have capital deployed yet. The timeline:

1. LLC formation confirmed (CA SOS — currently unconfirmed as of March 3)
2. EIN issued (1-3 days after LLC confirmed)
3. Bank account opened (Mercury — 1-5 business days)
4. Parents wire capital (requires Korean bank filing, which requires Articles of Organization + wire destination)
5. Wire clears (3-5 business days)

Realistic earliest deployment: **mid-to-late March 2026** if everything moves now.

### What to Watch

| Signal | Implication |
|--------|------------|
| Conflict extends beyond 4 weeks | Secondary prices may compress 10-15% — better entry point |
| Anthropic IPO filing announced | Price spike on secondaries — window closes |
| OpenAI round prices at $850B+ | Validates upside; secondary prices rise |
| OpenAI round prices below $750B | Secondaries reprice down — opportunity |
| Hiive adds new asks below $400 (Anthropic) | Buying opportunity — fill at limit |

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## Action Items

1. **Resolve LLC urgently.** Every week of delay is a week closer to Anthropic's IPO, after which the pre-IPO entry window closes.
2. **Open a Hiive account.** Review accreditation requirements. Hiive is the primary platform for Anthropic secondaries.
3. **Watch OpenAI fundraise news.** If the $100-110B round closes at a lower valuation, it creates a buying opportunity in OpenAI secondaries.
4. **Set price alerts.** Target entry: Anthropic below $380 (implied discount to latest round), OpenAI below $640 (10% discount to current Forge price).

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## Sources

- [Anthropic Stock — Hiive](https://www.hiive.com/securities/anthropic-stock)
- [OpenAI on Forge](https://forgeglobal.com/openai_ipo/)
- [Anthropic $380B Valuation — Fortune](https://fortune.com/2026/02/13/anthropics-380-billion-valuation-vaults-it-next-to-openai-spacex-among-largest-ipo-candidates/)
- [Anthropic vs. OpenAI IPO Odds — Augment](https://augment.market/blog/how-anthropic-overtook-openai-in-our-pre-ipo-rankings)
- [Secondary Market Concentration — State of Venture](https://www.thestateofventure.com/p/the-106-billion-secondaries-market)
- [Private Equity Faces AI Scrutiny — Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-25/ai-disruption-fears-prompt-scrutiny-in-booming-secondary-market)
- [Will Anthropic or xAI IPO in 2026? — KraneShares](https://kraneshares.com/will-anthropic-or-xai-ipo-in-2026/)