# Who to Watch and Why

Back to [[2026-03-02-check-other-funds|overview]] | Related: [[2026-03-02-check-other-funds/oil-and-hormuz]], [[2026-03-02-check-other-funds/gold-and-safe-havens]], [[2026-03-02-check-other-funds/fed-and-rates]]

These are the institutions and individuals whose moves shape markets. We watch them not
to copy them, but to understand the forces acting on every asset we care about.
See [[2026-03-02-check-other-funds/timeline]] for when these players made their moves.

---

## JP Morgan

**Why they matter:** Largest US bank by assets. Their research desk sets institutional
sentiment. When JP Morgan publishes a target, other funds reposition.

**Current positioning:**
- Gold target: $6,300/oz by December 2026
- Pre-conflict Brent baseline: $60/bbl (now irrelevant)
- Warned European natural gas could spike on transit disruption
- Dubai/Abu Dhabi operations on work-from-home contingency

**What to learn:** JP Morgan's oil and gold targets tell you what the *median*
institutional investor is pricing. If reality exceeds their targets, markets will
overshoot.

**Track:** [JP Morgan Global Research](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research)

## Goldman Sachs

**Why they matter:** Their commodity desk is the most influential on Wall Street. When
Goldman says $100 oil, trading desks around the world adjust their hedges.

**Current positioning:**
- Brent could breach $100 if strikes expand
- European natural gas could surge 130% if Hormuz disrupted for one month
- Strategist Dominic Wilson: equity damage depends on energy shock duration
- Pre-conflict S&P 500 target: 7,500 (now under review)

**What to learn:** Goldman's scenario analysis is the framework. They define the
thresholds ($100 oil, 130% gas spike) that trigger the next leg of market moves.

**Track:** [Goldman Sachs Insights](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/outlooks/2026-outlooks)

## BlackRock

**Why they matter:** World's largest asset manager (approx. $11T AUM). They don't just *react*
to markets — their ETF flows *are* the market in many sectors. When BlackRock rotates,
entire sectors move.

**Current positioning:**
- Pre-conflict: AI-focused with tactical flexibility
- Now: haven-first rotation across iShares products
- Geopolitical Risk Dashboard provides real-time quantified risk levels

**What to learn:** BlackRock's dashboard turns qualitative fear into quantitative risk
scores. Use it to calibrate your own assessment.

**Track:** [Geopolitical Risk Dashboard](https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/insights/blackrock-investment-institute/interactive-charts/geopolitical-risk-dashboard)

## Bridgewater / Ray Dalio

**Why they matter:** Largest hedge fund. Dalio's macro framework (debt cycles, great
power conflict) predicted this environment months ago. His model is the one many funds
use to navigate geopolitical crises.

**Current positioning:**
- February: warned of "great disorder," compared to 1930s
- Called incoming "capital war" — financial assets as geopolitical weapons
- Said Iran regime change makes Middle East more investable
- Sold US tech stocks, soured on America, defensive posture

**What to learn:** Dalio thinks in *decades*. His framework says this isn't a one-off
shock — it's part of a structural shift in the global order. If he's right, the
defensive rotation isn't temporary.

**Track:** [Bridgewater Research](https://www.bridgewater.com/research-and-insights)

## Berkshire Hathaway / Warren Buffett

**Why they matter:** $382 billion in cash. This is the largest war chest in market
history. Buffett's deployment is the single most watched bottom signal in finance.

**Current positioning:**
- approx. $382B cash, record high, more than double previous peak
- Apple stake cut from approx. $200B to approx. $60B
- Bank of America and other positions sold through 2025
- Cash in short-term Treasuries at 3.6% yield
- Has been raising cash since 2023 bull market began

**What to learn:** Buffett saw *something* coming. He didn't know it would be Iran, but
he knew valuations were stretched and risk was elevated. When he starts buying, the
message is: "the worst is priced in." We are not there yet.

**Track:** [Berkshire 13F on SEC EDGAR](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001067983&type=13F)

## Citadel / Ken Griffin

**Why they matter:** Most profitable hedge fund in history. Multi-strategy across
equities, fixed income, commodities, and quant. When Citadel moves, it often means
they've found a mispricing before anyone else.

**Current positioning:**
- Rushing to size up Middle East exposure
- Specific positioning not public
- Entering 2026 with mega-cap tech overweight — likely trimming
- Wellington fund gained 10.2% in 2025

**What to learn:** Citadel's 13F filings (quarterly, with a lag) will eventually show
what the smartest money did during this crisis. Worth checking in May.

**Track:** [Citadel 13F on HedgeFollow](https://hedgefollow.com/funds/Citadel+Advisors)

---

## How to Use 13F Filings

All funds managing >$100M must file quarterly 13F reports with the SEC. These show
actual holdings — not what they *say* they hold, but what they *actually* hold.

- Filed 45 days after quarter end (Q1 2026 filings due mid-May)
- Available free on [SEC EDGAR](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar)
- Aggregated on WhaleWisdom, Dataroma, HedgeFollow
- Limitation: 45-day lag means you're always looking in the rear-view mirror
- But patterns over multiple quarters reveal strategy, not just trades