# Timeline: The First 72 Hours

Back to [[2026-03-02-check-other-funds|overview]]

This page tracks the conflict and market reactions hour by hour. Understanding the
sequence matters — markets don't react to events, they react to the *pace* of events.

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## Friday, February 28

**approx. 1:15 AM EST** — Airstrikes begin. Combination of US missiles, drones, and Israeli
fighter jets hit targets across Iran. The operation is dubbed "Epic Fury."

**approx. 2:30 AM EST** — Trump releases 8-minute video statement. States the purpose of the
strikes is effectively regime change.

**Pre-market** — Oil futures surge immediately. Brent jumps from approx. $67 to $72.80 by
Friday close (+2.9%). WTI moves up 2.8%. Gold begins climbing from approx. $5,100.

**During the day** — Iran confirms strikes are ongoing. Airspace closures across the
region. Airlines cancel hundreds of Middle East flights.

**Market close** — Brent closes at $72.87. Gold at $5,194. Equities mixed — the full
impact hasn't been priced yet because Iran hasn't retaliated.

---

## Saturday, March 1

**Early morning** — Iranian state media confirms Khamenei killed. 40 days of mourning
declared, 7-day national holiday.

**Morning** — Iran retaliates. Missiles and drones launched at **seven countries**:
Israel, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia. This is the escalation
moment — it went from a targeted strike to a regional war.

**Key targets hit:**
- Tel Aviv and Haifa (Israel)
- Al Dhafra Air Base, Abu Dhabi (UAE) — 1 civilian killed, 21 drones hit civilian targets
- US Fifth Fleet base, Manama (Bahrain) — Crowne Plaza hotel also hit
- Al Udeid Air Base (Qatar) and Kuwait International Airport
- Saudi eastern region targeted, repelled

**09:30 AM EST** — CENTCOM confirms 3 US service members killed, 5 seriously injured.

**Shipping** — Tankers begin avoiding Hormuz. Three tankers struck by missiles/drones
within 24 hours, including the oil tanker *Skylight* off Oman. Hapag-Lloyd suspends all
Hormuz transits. approx. 170 containerships trapped inside the Gulf.

**OPEC+** — Emergency meeting. Agrees to 206,000 bpd increase for April (modest — options
ranged from 137K to 548K bpd). Little spare capacity available, and even Saudi/UAE
can't easily export with Gulf navigation disrupted.

**Sunday night futures open:**
- Brent: approx. $79/bbl (+8% from Friday)
- WTI: approx. $72/bbl (+8%)
- Gold: surging past $5,300
- S&P 500 futures: -1.6%
- Nasdaq 100 futures: -1.7%
- Dow futures: -600+ points

---

## Sunday–Monday, March 2

**Early hours** — RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus hit by drone. Projectiles launched from Lebanon
toward Israel, sirens across Haifa and Upper Galilee. Conflict widening geographically.

**Asia opens:**
- Nikkei 225 down as much as 2.66%, settles at -1.37% (58,070)
- Hang Seng dives 2.5% near 26,000
- Shanghai flat (-0.13%)
- EM currencies drop 0.5% — Philippine peso and Taiwan dollar worst hit

**Gold** — Hits $5,296/oz in early trading, up $102 from Friday. Seventh consecutive
monthly gain. Climbed $1,000 in under 60 days.

**Insurance** — War risk insurers issue 48-72 hour cancellation notices for Gulf shipping
policies. Premiums doubling from 0.25% to 0.5%+ of hull value. A $150M container
vessel: single-transit premium rises from $375K to $750K.

**US pre-market:**
- S&P 500 futures: -1.7%
- Nasdaq 100 futures: -2%
- Dow futures: -600+

---

## What to Watch Next

- **Trump says "four weeks or less"** — but Iran is hitting six+ countries. The gap
  between stated timeline and actual escalation is widening.
- **Hormuz reopening** — see [[2026-03-02-check-other-funds/oil-and-hormuz]]. No signs yet.
- **Fed silence** — no Powell statement yet. See [[2026-03-02-check-other-funds/fed-and-rates]].
- **Buffett's $382B** — see [[2026-03-02-check-other-funds/who-to-watch]]. When does he move?